During a session of the Transport Committee on the interim report of the Airports Commission, MPs heard from Sir Howard Davies, Chair, Airports Commission and Philip Graham, Secretary, Airports Commission.

The session was wide-reaching and covered: Mayor of London and political consensus; Estuary airport; Passenger growth at Stansted; Birmingham Airport; International airports; Delivering recommendations; Regional connectivity; Domestic flights and HS2; Northern airports; Business travel; Implementing short-term recommendations; Separate hubs; Isle of Grain studies; Timings and costs; and a Four-runway solution.

A summary is shown below. The full Committee session is available here as a video link.

Mayor of London and political consensus

Opening the session, Labour Committee Chair Louise Ellman asked if London Mayor Boris Johnson was right that the Commission’s interim report had failed to achieve consensus. Responding, Sir Howard said that Mr Johnson had a specific view about hub capacity, which had not been endorsed by the Commission’s report. He pledged to press on with the work, including further work on the option on a Thames Estuary airport favoured by the Mayor. Sir Howard said that Mr Johnson’s views on hub capacity were not a ‘starting point for an independent inquiry’.

Conservative MP Karl McCartney asked if the Commission had met with Mr Johnson or discussed the issue with him. In reply, Sir Howard confirmed that he had met with Mr Johnson a couple of days before the interim report’s publication in December 2013 and that he would do so again in the future.

Labour MP Graham Stringer asked if discussions had been held with Prime Minister David Cameron, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and Labour Leader Ed Miliband to achieve consensus on the Commission’s findings.

Sir Howard stated that the Commission had sought to ‘maintain a parallel relationship with the three parties’, including speaking to the three main parties prior to the interim report’s publication. Later, asked by the Chair if it was possible to achieve a consensus, Sir Howard expressed the hope that there was sufficient will expressed privately by politicians.

Estuary airport

Turning to the Isle of Grain proposals, Mr Stringer asked if the cost to the public sector would be £100m and why the Commission was still assessing it. In reply, Sir Howard said that the arguments for a new estuary airport were based on a shift in the economic geography in London and the South East and the population growth of the capital. He explained that these were difficult to weigh up, alongside tricky environmental questions such as building near wetland habitat. The Airports Commission had needed to be certain that it could rule the option out, believing that they had not had a sufficient reason to do so, Sir Howard said.

He pointed to questions over building new rail routes to an estuary hub, the complexity of environmental directives, the changing the economic geography of London and what would persuade the airlines to move there, specifically the level of public subsidy required. Pressed by Mr Stringer, Sir Howard said that the Commission did not believe that an estuary airport could be built without an assurance that it would be the only hub airport. He posited that, in order to achieve this, the Government would have to purchase Heathrow Airport and run it up until a new estuary hub was established.

Passenger growth at Stansted

Mr Stringer said that Manchester Airport Group had indicated that the projections for passenger growth at Stansted were what the airport would meet this year. In reply, Mr Graham said that commercial deals with easyJet and Ryanair mean that Stansted could reach 19 million to 20 million next year. He added that Government projections also showed that the airport was currently operating at 50 per cent capacity.

Birmingham Airport

Conservative MP Karen Lumley asked how quickly the Commission had ruled out Birmingham Airport for expansion. In reply, Sir Howard said that economic modelling had suggested that the airport was unlikely to need a runway in the near future. There was a strong degree of local support for expansion at Birmingham, Sir Howard conceded, but added that the needs of passengers had to be carefully considered.

Pressed on the question of HS2, he added that the new rail link would allow people in the Midlands easier access both to airports in the South East or to Manchester Airport.

Questioned by Ms Lumley on the prospect of a third runway at Heathrow, Sir Howard believed it was ‘within the horizon of expectations’ for one to be built by 2026.

International airports

Mr McCartney asked which international airports the Commission had visited as part of its work. ‘We have talked quite extensively to people overseas’, Sir Howard said, noting how quickly the position of an international hub could change.

Mr McCartney asked for Sir Howard’s personal perspective on the impact of international air travel. International surveys suggested that Heathrow and Gatwick airports were doing rather well, the witness replied, adding that they were ‘not at all bad by international standards’.

Delivering recommendations

Labour MP Jim Fitzpatrick, drawing on his own Ministerial experience, asked if the Commission could deliver their final report before the general election. In reply, Sir Howard stated that the Commission could have produced a report before May 2015, but added that they were taking advantage of the timetable to conduct work to allow any future Government to hit the ground running on the issue. ‘We could do something much more substantial, which, given the time we have been given, is exactly what we are doing’, he said.

Labour MP Jim Dobbin asked if planning permission should be granted to the Commission’s recommendations when they were delivered. In the event that consensus would be achieved, Sir Howard felt it was likely that a National Planning Statement or a hybrid bill could be brought forward to advance them. He emphasised the importance of making a decision ‘very, very fast’ after the next general election. Any future Government could publish a national planning statement in draft within a few months of coming to office, Mr Graham said.

Regional connectivity

Questioned by Mr Fitzpatrick, Sir Howard explained that the Commission had met with officials from the devolved governments, agreeing that regional connectivity was important. He noted that the number of regional connections to Heathrow had fallen in recent years. ‘We have to be careful what kinds of connectivity we are losing and what kinds we are getting back’, Sir Howard said. He added that the Commission had also acknowledged the link between international connectivity and UK investment and trade.

The Chair asked if there was likely to be an impact on the UK’s economic position because of a lack of connectivity. In reply, Sir Howard said that many arguments in this area were likely ‘overstated’, but believed that a lack of free slots available at Heathrow meant it could not benefit from new routes over the next decade.

Domestic flights and HS2

Liberal Democrat MP Adrian Sanders asked if domestic flights were factored into the Commission’s forecasts and if HS2 were reduce the need for them. Only one per cent of domestic aviation could be diverted onto HS2, Sir Howard said, confirming that they were part of forecasts.

Pressed by Mr Sanders on the question of an airport existing mainly for domestic travel, Sir Howard believed that London City Airport was closest to that model.

Questioned on the possible use of RAF Northolt, Sir Howard explained that the Ministry of Defence currently used it. He added that because it was co-terminus to Heathrow, many of the flights already took off and landed at about the same time.

Northern airports

Conservative MP Jason McCartney asked why the Commission was not giving more consideration to northern airports as options for new hubs. Noting his own northern roots, Sir Howard explained that they had examined options to improve the utilisation of regional airports. He added that the Commission had not held a meeting at Manchester Airport, but had held a day of consultation meetings in the city’s town hall.

The traffic distribution rules could not be changed to incentivise regional travel, Sir Howard said. He elaborated that the Commission had found that regional variations in Air Passenger Duty would lead to smaller connections and a poorer service.

Mr McCartney noted significant economic developments, such as the relocation of the BBC to Salford and opportunities for new markets as evidence that the northern economy was changing. In reply, Sir Howard insisted that the Commission’s forecasts were based on trends and that they believed there would not be ‘big shift in the balance of activity to airports in the north’.

Mr Stringer asked if the Government should declare an open skies policy in all regional airports to help improve competition with the South East. Responding, the witnesses pledged to examine the issue if the legal advice given to the Commission on the matter could be shared with the Transport Committee.

Conservative MP Martin Vickers asked if the Commission had assumed that a growing economy would mean that passengers would want to travel long distances to use a hub airport in the South East as opposed to a regional one. Responding, Sir Howard explained that Heathrow’s competitive advantage was in the network of routes available from it.

Business travel

Mr Vickers asked if business travel was projected to increase for low-cost airlines. In reply, Sir Howard said that it accounted for roughly 20 per cent travel with Ryanair and easyJet, feeling that it was appropriate for many businesses to use them.

Implementing short-term recommendations

Conservative MP Chloe Smith asked what steps could be taken to improve over ground transport, for example in improving links to Stansted. She also asked why a new noise authority should be established. There would be a ten to 15-year gap before a new runway would come on stream, Sir Howard said, noting that it was important to address issues like surface access and noise in the short-term. He felt that it made sense to attach a higher weight to investment that would improve airports within that period. Improvements in access would include changes to the Stansted Express and a new station at Gatwick, Sir Howard said, noting that the Government had supported these changes in the National Infrastructure Plan.

On the subject of noise, he explained that the Commission had found that separate aviation noise authorities worked well in countries such as France or Germany. Sir Howard further explained that the Independent Noise Authority would rule on cases of airport noise as well as being a statutory consultee on the issue. He added that there would not be any overlap with the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

Later, asked by the Chair as to why the CAA should not oversee aviation noise, Sir Howard believed that a ‘focused, targeted, independent authority’ would increase public confidence in the process. Questioned by Ms Smith, Sir Howard believed that the numbers of people affected at given noise levels would fall over the next decade as new aircraft were brought in. Later questioned by the Chair, he said, ‘I am not hiding the fact that there will still be a lot of people affected by noise at Heathrow’.

Ms Smith asked if the Commission would be able to monitor the implementation of its short-term recommendations. Responding, Sir Howard explained that they would read the Government’s response to the interim report with interest whilst also pushing forward with the second phase of their work.

Sir Howard explained that more examination would be done on the issue in the second phase of the Commission’s work.

Separate hubs

The Chair asked if the Commission believed that there could be separate hubs at both Heathrow and Gatwick airports. In reply, Sir Howard said that the Commission had suggested that it was not a choice between ‘hub and no hub’. He cited the example of Milan Airport as one where the traditional distinction had broken down. He pointed to the rapid growth in point-to-point low-cost airlines and the question of how this would impact on the future of the aviation sector. Sir Howard affirmed that careful consideration had been given before the Gatwick option had been shortlisted.

Isle of Grain studies

The Chair asked what work the Commission would undertake on the Isle of Grain proposals. In reply, Sir Howard said that four studies would be undertaken, including on surface access, environmental impact, effect on the economic geography and airline behaviour.

Timings and costs

Asked to provide a rough deadline for the construction of each shortlisted option, Mr Graham said that a new runway could be built at Heathrow around 2026 and at Gatwick at around 2025. He added that proponents of the Isle of Grain proposals believed it could be built by 2029.

On the question of cost, Mr Graham said it the Gatwick and Heathrow options would roughly cost £15bn to £20bn, whereas the Isle of Grain would be around £120bn. These did not take into account how much cost would be borne by the public and private sectors.

Four-runway solution

Questioned by Mr Stringer on the Heathrow four runway solution put forward by the Policy Exchange think tank, Sir Howard explained that the process of building over reservoirs, which the proposal involved, was too difficult, too expensive and would take too long.